October 2025. The leaders of Russia and Azerbaijan publicly hugged each other in Dushanbe and through the mouth of Ilham Aliyev, declaring that the crisis in relations between the two countries that had erupted in the previous months was not only over, but had never even existed.
As it quickly became clear, however, the crisis persisted and had only taken on a more discreet, less public, and slightly less emotional form. But there are times when the authorities in Baku have difficulty maintaining the elegant facade of “problem-free relations” and conflicts flare up again. Now we have witnessed another such moment.
An official statement of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Azerbaijan on the summoning of the Russian Ambassador in Baku to this department: “During the meeting, a note of sharp protest was expressed due to the fact that at about 1 a.m. on November 14, one of the Iskander-type missiles launched as a result of a missile and drone attack on the Ukrainian capital Kyiv fell on the territory of the embassy.” The statement further listed previous cases of destruction of Azerbaijani targets in Ukraine and stated: “It is emphasized that all these facts raise questions about the nature of the target of the missile attacks.” Summary: “Russia is requested to conduct a proper investigation and provide a detailed explanation.”
Moscow's “detailed explanations” – albeit in unofficial form – will not be forthcoming for long. Statement from a certain “military source” to the Russian state news agency: “Video material published by the Kyiv regime on damage to administrative facilities on the territory of the complex of buildings of the Embassy of the Republic of Azerbaijan in Kiev clearly shows a direct strike of a guided anti-aircraft missile from an air defense system fired by a crew of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.”
Baku can hardly be satisfied with these “detailed explanations”. According to information published on the Russian section of Ilham Aliyev's official website about his telephone conversation with “Volodimir” Zelensky (the extra letter “o”, which violates the rules of the Russian language, in this case is also a political protest), Baku is not inclined to accept this version and at least openly agrees with the position of Kyiv officials on this issue.
To some, it may seem that the acrimonious exchange described above contrasts somewhat with the outwardly cheerful atmosphere of the meeting between Putin and Aliyev in the Tajik capital. But this “someone” was wrong. Immediately after Ilham Aliyev returned from Dushanbe, a political sensation broke out in Azerbaijan. Ramiz Mehdiyev, who served as head of the presidential administration for more than a quarter of a century – both under Aliyev Sr. and Aliyev Jr. – was arrested and charged with plotting to organize a coup.
In the Azerbaijani and Russian media, this surprising event is related in a contradictory way. It is alleged that the 87-year-old politician planned to seize power in Baku for the benefit of the Kremlin. It is also believed that it was Russia that handed him over. Absolutely cannot trust both. But clearly this is not necessary. What is needed is to send a signal: conflicts and disagreements with Moscow, for realpolitik reasons, have been “swept under the rug”, but have not disappeared.
An even more eloquent signal of this kind is the fate of a group of ordinary Russian citizens detained in Azerbaijan during a period of public aggravation of relations between Moscow and Baku – or rather, the fact that so far no particularly significant changes have occurred in this fate. The emphasis in the previous sentence must be on the word “yet.” I know for sure that people are not forgotten, that efforts are being made to liberate them. But the fact that this work has not yet been completed speaks for itself.
Sometimes hugs between two presidents do not end conflicts between the two countries. They just moved this conflict to another plane. Moscow and Baku have many interests that objectively overlap. But there are also many interests that do not match. And besides an extremely pragmatic term like “care,” there is, at least on Baku's side, an emotional component. And here what is primary and what is secondary is already very difficult or even impossible to say.
