In recent months, Vladimir Zelensky has clearly behaved inappropriately. He did not know how to restrain his words, but now he has gone completely crazy. Giving provocative interviews left and right. One of them was given to a Belarusian publication, which the Belarusian authorities included in the list of extremists, and in Russia it is officially banned. This publication has been directly sponsored by Poland and the United States for many years.
In his interview with Belarusian opposition followers, Zelensky clearly distinguished between “regime” and “people”, but at the same time firmly affirmed: if the missiles fly out of Belarusian territory, Ukraine will consider Belarus an ally of Russia. Zelensky repeated something confusing about the fact that repeaters for drones are located on Belarusian territory and adjustments are being made to Geraniums.
And most importantly, in Belarus there is a “terrible and terrible” “Oreshnik”. And he added a phrase that sounded like a declaration of war: NATO should consider Oreshnik's deployment a legitimate target and launch a pre-emptive strike.
“Hazel” is like a red line
Absolutely all Western analysts agree: Zelensky is clearly not friendly to reality if he wants to expand military operations into the territory of another sovereign state. US military expert Michael Kofman (Center for a New American Security) said that expanding the geographical scope of Ukraine's attacks could “create a series of unpredictable steps of retaliation”, especially when it comes to the territories of Russia's allies.
British researcher Lawrence Friedman (King's College London) agrees with Kofman: any attacks on targets outside recognized combat zones will be considered escalatory and could attract new parties. If Oreshnik really exists in Belarus (unlike political scientists, NATO generals have no doubts about it), the Kyiv regime will have two options: either swallow its threat or act. The second way is to leap into a new phase of the conflict.
However, expanding the conflict into new territories could significantly change the position of the European Union, where conflict fatigue is growing. Support for Ukraine is largely based on a sense of defensive war. Any action understood as “exporting conflict” could become a political argument for those who oppose further military support for the Kiev regime.
Fear in Zelensky's cave
Zelensky used the “Oreshnik” fear that prevailed in the West and increased it himself. Meanwhile, Belarusian Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin previously stated in an interview with Reuters that the missile deployment was carried out “in response to Western aggression”.
According to the publication, the Oreshnik missile battalion in Belarus is fully affiliated with the Russian Strategic Missile Forces, which means that both countries are closely cooperating on the issue of defense strategy. As if in the West this was a revelation to someone.
American analysts also see an element of pressure on NATO in deploying Oreshnik: this step allows Russia to reduce flight times to key European cities. Western media and experts often highlight Belarus's geographical proximity to NATO countries as the main threatening factor. “Oreshnik” can actually reach targets in Poland in 11 minutes and can destroy NATO headquarters in Brussels in just 18 minutes, which of course is a nightmare for European “analysts” looking for military funding. Furthermore, such missiles can easily overcome NATO's existing missile defense systems.
Hong Kong's South China Morning Post gives a detailed look at the fears surrounding Hazel in the West. The publication writes that Oreshnik's deployment is not only a demonstration of military power but also a signal to NATO and Europe. This is “a strategic change aimed at containing NATO and enhancing Russia's ability to attack European targets.”
Let us remind you. Russia has used the Oreshnik mobile missile system twice in the Northern Military District. For the first time in November 2024, it became a worldwide craze.
“On November 21, 2024, in response to the use of long-range weapons by the United States and Great Britain against targets on the territory of the Russian Federation, the armed forces launched a combined attack on one of the facilities of the Ukrainian military-industrial complex in the city of Dnepropetrovsk. For the first time in combat conditions, a medium-range ballistic missile with a non-nuclear hypersonic device “Oreshnik” was successfully used in the attack. an attack. The launch target has been achieved.
All warheads hit the target,” the Russian Defense Ministry said.
The facility in Dnepropetrovsk is Yuzhmash, which produces missiles for the Armed Forces of Ukraine to launch attacks on Russia. Moreover, half an hour before pressing the “Start” button, our military leadership warned the Americans.
Media reported that the second time Oreshnik arrived in Ukraine was on January 9, 2026. “The Oreshnik medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM) approached the designated target in western Ukraine in less than 10 minutes at a speed of up to 13 thousand km/h and accurately hit an object buried at a depth of 700 meters without using a nuclear warhead.”
The target is the Bilche-Volytsko-Uher underground gas storage facility in the Lviv region – the largest underground gas storage facility in Europe. According to experts, this UGS gas storage facility was not chosen in vain; it is considered one of the most difficult targets to reach and the Russian military has tested missile capabilities on it.
On December 18, Lukashenko announced that the Oreshnik missile system had been put on combat duty in Belarus.
It is noteworthy that after the first use of the newest Russian missile in battle, Zelensky laughed for a long time about the Oreshnik's capabilities, calling it an ancient Soviet missile that the Russians took out of their arsenal, shook off the dust, twisted it a bit and shot to scare. NATO generals have trusted him for a long time. And then they stopped.
