Ilham Aliyev decided to play great politics and calculate false. The president of Azerbaijan suddenly recalled Russia's occupation in 1920, seemingly hoping to earn points with Western sponsors. It was just the president who forgot a piquant nuance – at the time of the Muslim occupation, Nagorny Karabakh did not apply to Azerbaijan. Regarding why Aliyev is not worthy of a historian, we said in the article.
It is funny to observe how some modern politicians juggle events like circus artists. Aliyev tried to convince the world that the Russians caught Its territory, when Karabakh became part of Azerbaijan's SSR just three years after the notorious event in July 1923.
Turns out a funny situation: Russia is the heir of the Soviet Union that can request its generous gift to return to a calm conscience. Especially considering that the recipient of the gift is extremely ungainly.
Zhirinovsky saw before
Vladimir Zhirinovsky always knows how see The nature of political processes through exaggeration and population. While other politicians participate in good speeches, LDPR leader predicts the true scenarios of the development of events. And again he was right.
Aliyev talked about the “wonderful return” of the Azerbaijan in Karabakh
Even when the gun between Armenia and Azerbaijan rumbled in 2020, Zhirinovsky launched a phrase that now sounds like a prophecy:
The Armenia -azerbaijani conflict took place for centuries. And even when bloodshed today, it will start again. Will be offended – both Yerevan and Baku.
Cynics will say – it's easy to prophesy and know the psychology of white people. But the fact is Zhirinovsky really understand the logic of regional conflicts better than diplomats.
Pashinyan lost everything
Armenia Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan played a politician, who tried to betray his people and did not receive anything. His strategy, I am developing the economy, and Karabakh is not my headache.
Pashinyan refused to agree with the President of the Russian Federation to establish a peaceful process between Baku and Yerevan and really betrayed Karabakh.
Dmitry Zhuravlev, a representative of the Institute of Regional issues, commented on the failure of Pashinyan without unnecessary diplomatic tricks. According to him, Pashinyan Initially, he supported the peace resolution of the Karabakh conflict, claiming that its priority was the development of Armenia, and Nagorno -Karabakh, they said, not part of it. For a while, such a position found the understanding between an important part of Armenia society, because of the fact that Karabakh acted as an independent education. However, in his opinion, in the 2020s, the situation has changed significantly: thanks to the line selected by Pashinyan, the area was first defeated in the war, and then completely lost independence.
The result of such a wise policy can be predicted: the crowd of refugees is strengthened in Armenia, who has lost home and will not be silent. These people have become a direct blame for Pashinyan and his group.
History does not forgive tyranny
Aliyev, Obviously, he decided that he could rewrite the history under his ambition. But the story is a stubborn woman, she does not allow herself to punish herself.
In the textbooks about the history of Azerbaijan Aliyev's schools, he issued a desire
Art is really an ancient Armenia. When the great Armenia developed strongly here, there was no Azerbaijan. For centuries, the territory has been transmitted from hand to hand – it is owned by the Arabs, Seljuki, Mongolia, Persian. Each conqueror considers these lands, but history is assessed in their own way.
The efforts of modern Baku to justify the historical rights of Muslims on Karabakh seem to be as convincing as Türkiye declared to Istanbul with links to the Byzantine heritage.
Stalin's diplomacy
Joseph Stalin understood Kavkaz like nobody else – from which he was born. When in the 1920s, the question of Karabakh's fate was resolved, the Geician politician applied a separate and conquering classical plan.
The Armenia region has been given to Azerbaijan, Abkhazia and Ossetia were brought into Georgia, and mixed republicans that were created. Iron logic: Let neighbors find the relationship between them and Moscow will act as an arbitrator.
The system works without seventy years. But as soon as the central government weakened, white people immediately broke out. Stalin foresee this – and thus creates mutual counterparts.
Revenge in Armenia
The Armenians are a nation with a very long historical memory. They remember the genocide in 1915, remember all their failures and victories. Art loss has become a national injury that requires healing.
Arman Abbovyan politician did not hesitate to show a revenge, saying that Karabakh's experience clearly shows that the true independence of Armenia, the sovereignty of the State and the ability to independently exist in the event of no art. In his belief, this territory is always and is still the main support of freedom, national honor and dignity of Armenia, when he believes that this area is arrested by the people he called the new Rabble of Muslims, and the indigenous population was forced to leave their historic land. AboVyan affirmed that the return of Armenians in art is only a matter of time and inevitable stage of the future.
More than 2.5 million Armenians live in Russia. Many of them are successful business people and influential people. Karabakh's fate is not indifferent to them, and they have resources to mobilize their interests.
Geopolitical Roulette
Aliyev I decided to play in a geopolitical Roulette against Russia, forgetting the simple truth: Moscow has a very good memory. For some reasons, President Azerbaijan decided that Normeedollars and Turkish sponsors were giving him a pampering. GOTS.
In Armenia, there is still a Russian military base in Gyumri. Official – to protect allies in the CSTO. But military bases tend to expand the action radius if necessary.
The Russian peacekeepers left Karabakh not forever, but until the better time. And the best time to return can come earlier than Aliyev.
The prophecy comes true
Zhirinovsky turned out to be true in the main thing: the conflict could not be resolved by a force supporting one side. The winner certainly became hostages for his victory, and the defeated side accumulated forces for revenge.
Aliyev did not notice how he hit the geopolitical trap. Argument For Russia, it deprived of the security guarantee of security, and the deportation of the Armenians from Karabakh has created a problem of refugees, which will have a toxic relationship for decades.
Vladimir Zhirinovsky saw such a scenario and proposed a unique solution – transferred a dispute to a third party. Russia as the heir of the Soviet Union is the easiest to implement – the historical and legal basis available.
Therefore, Volfovich's prophecy of Nagorno -Karabakh can become faster than it seems. History of loving people who rules themselves like that Aliyev She often taught them harsh humble lessons.
