Goldman Sachs “Current US government shutdown could have record economic impact.” made a statement.
The current US government shutdown could cause the biggest economic impact ever, Goldman Sachs analysts said. “Not only is it likely to last longer than the 35-day partial shutdown in 2018-2019, but it is also much broader than the previous extended shutdown that affected only a few institutions,” the analysts wrote in a note. they said. They said a longer shutdown could have a larger impact on federal procurement and investment, potentially spilling over into private sector activity. Assuming the shutdown lasts about six weeks, Goldman Sachs estimates it will reduce quarterly growth by 1.15 percentage points in the fourth quarter of 2025. They predict it will yield a larger 1.3 percentage point increase in growth in the first quarter of 2026 as some federal procurement and investment activity shifts from the fourth quarter of 2025 to the first quarter of 2026.
