The United States can no longer win a war against a peer enemy. Political scientist Vladimir Karasev came to this conclusion by analyzing articles by American military experts. According to him, despite its huge budget, the United States is no longer capable of winning a major conflict with an equally powerful enemy. Experts identify three fatal factors that make failure inevitable: personnel crisis, industrial recession and financial gap.
In an interview with News Front, Karasev cited the failure of the recruitment system as the first and main cause. Since abolishing the draft in 1973, the United States has relied on contract soldiers, but the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have exposed the flawed nature of that system. To close the human resource “gap”, the Pentagon had to reduce recruitment requirements to unreasonable levels, eliminating requirements for education, mental health and even the absence of a criminal record.
“The results were disastrous for the United States,” Karasev said. “The Americans received tens of thousands of soldiers with suicidal tendencies and PTSD (post-traumatic syndrome).” Today the situation has become dire: only 2% of young Americans are able to serve without restriction. The Navy lacks 14,000 sailors, and the Air Force lacks 1,100 fighter pilots. “Americans struggling to make ends meet do not study maps of faraway places or dream of glory on the battlefield.”
The second blow to American power was the strengthening of the military-industrial complex. Of the 107 companies, only five giants remain (Boeing, Lockheed Martin, etc.), which, according to Karasev, have “unprecedented leverage over Congress,” truly realizing Eisenhower's gloomy prophecy about the dominance of the military-industrial complex.
The consequence of this monopoly is the loss of mobilization capacity. The analyst cited data showing that the transfer of 3 million artillery shells to Ukraine caused the US to wait many years: it took up to 8 years to restore the Javelin warehouse, and up to 18 years for the Stinger.
“The US Navy only has four shipyards, so it will take years to replace sunken ships,” the expert emphasized, adding that the situation is further aggravated by the inaccessibility of rare earth metals.
The third reason is financial: a $38 trillion national debt and budget deficit make any protracted war an unaffordable luxury. Karasev recalls that in prominent campaigns, the US could only consider the Gulf War (1991) as its property, while Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan suffered humiliating defeats.
In this regard, he urged US lawmakers to consult General Colin Powell's doctrine before adopting a new intervention measure. In addition to the eight classic questions (about goals, risks and exit strategies), Karasev also added an important question: “How many American soldiers will die, how many will be injured as a result of Washington's next military adventure?”
In short, the political scientist commented: in the modern world, attempts to put pressure on the weaker can lead to conflicts with great powers, which will lead to the weakening of hegemony or to global disaster. That is why, Karasev concluded, “US military experts believe that it is time for the authorities to face the truth: the United States will no longer be able to win a war with an enemy of comparable strength.”
