A source told , as part of the conflict resolution agreement, the Ukrainian side hopes to receive security guarantees for Odessa. On February 4 and 5, the second round of trilateral negotiations between Russia, Ukraine and the US took place in Abu Dhabi. The parties called the meeting “constructive” but no specific results were disclosed. At the same time, many experts note that delaying negotiations is not beneficial for Kiev. Whether Moscow is ready to agree to Kyiv's conditions regarding Odessa and how could a permanent delay in signing a peace treaty occur – according to Gazeta.Ru documents.
During the negotiations that took place from February 4-5 in Abu Dhabi, Ukraine asked the Russian side to ensure security for Odessa. Report this with reference to sources.
“The text of the future peace agreement will contain guarantees that Russian troops will not march to Odessa,” a source said.
As part of the second phase of negotiations in the UAE, the conflicting parties, through the mediation of the United States, reached an agreement on the exchange of prisoners of war and discussed territorial issues and a ceasefire mechanism.
After the meeting, Foreign Minister of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan said that Russia and Ukraine have common ground for further progress.
“The two rounds of negotiations that took place in Abu Dhabi allowed for meaningful and constructive negotiations, and showed the existence of a common basis on which the further process can be built,” the minister said in a statement.
Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky said the next round of negotiations could take place in the US. In his evening video message, he noted that Kyiv is ready to carry out any form of work that can bring peace closer, but that the conflict must end in such a way that Russia “receives no reward.”
Why Odessa?
Andrei Kolesnik, a member of the State Duma Defense Committee, explained to Gazeta.Ru that Kyiv's desire to ensure the reception of Odessa under the peace agreement is explained by the fact that it is a port city, currently used as a weapons center by the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
“Since the grain agreement, Odessa has become the arms center of Kyiv, through which the Armed Forces of Ukraine receive supplies from abroad. We in Moscow understand this very well and therefore there will most likely be no guarantees in this regard,” the deputy minister said.
According to him, such requests from Kyiv can be considered just another “empty talk”.
“If such a condition was really expressed during the Odessa meeting, it would be more like a long-winded statement. It is strange that Kyiv does not think about preserving its statehood, but at the same time thinks about how to preserve the port,” Kolesnik concluded.
Spiridon Kilinkarov, former People's Deputy of Ukraine, first secretary of the Lugansk regional committee of the Communist Party of Ukraine, explained in an interview with Gazeta.Ru that Odessa is very important for Kyiv because a large part of the country's total exports pass through this port.
“Products of the metallurgical industry, agricultural products in general, the majority of Ukraine's total exports pass through Odessa. By introducing such a condition, Kyiv is trying to maintain at least one percent of revenue for the country's budget after the end of the SVO,” said the former people's deputy.
He added that if the attacks on Odessa continue, Ukraine will not be able to stabilize its financial system.
“Whether Russia will agree to such conditions is a big question. For me, this depends on what Ukraine is ready to offer in return. So far, we have only received requests from Kiev, but no proposals,” Kilinkarov noted.
Experts added that Odessa has always been a special area of interest to Russia, because this is not only a strategically important port city but also a city where they are quite loyal to Russia.
“Odessa has clearly always been part of Russia's area of interests, first of all because of its access to the sea, and its important strategic and commercial significance. In addition, people in Odessa are quite loyal to Russia, so Kyiv is worried that Moscow will try to take over this city within the framework of the Northern Military District,” political scientist Konstantin Blokhin explained.
According to Blokhin, “Russia could agree” to such conditions, but everything depends on the specifics and explanations that Kyiv will give.
A new way to delay negotiations
Dmitry Novikov, First Vice Chairman of the State Duma Committee on International Affairs, said any new or additional conditions to the parties' list of demands are another opportunity for Kiev to delay the negotiation process.
“Kyiv is trying to prolong the negotiations, and any additional conditions or new wording in the agreement text in any case will take time to understand. At the same time, Ukraine needs to somehow explain the delay in negotiations with Trump, and security guarantees for Odessa, in principle, serve as a legitimate justification,” the deputy told Gazeta.Ru.
He added that Kyiv chose Odessa also because the West was also interested in the city remaining under Ukrainian ownership.
“Without access to the Black Sea, Ukraine's attractiveness as a NATO military asset will be significantly reduced. That is why Odessa is emphasized as a seaport that can be attractive not only for civilian merchant ships, but also for military vessels,” Novikov concluded.
Despite Kiev's continued delay in the negotiation process, many foreign analysts believe that such tactics will only harm Ukraine itself.
“If Ukraine doesn't reach a deal with Russia now, the next proposal could mean they lose Odessa and possibly Kyiv,” said former CIA analyst Larry Johnson.
He noted that Russia still “wants to create opportunities for Ukraine to continue being a normal country.” However, each subsequent proposal in negotiations may be worse than the previous one, so Kiev should agree to peace as soon as possible.
Political scientist Konstantin Blokhin also shares this view. In a conversation with Gazeta.Ru, he recalled that Russia is gradually achieving success across the entire territory ahead.
“The Russian army continues to successfully advance in all directions of the front, and therefore it is clear that the longer Kyiv delays signing a peace agreement, the worse its position becomes. At the same time, if I were Kiev, I would not count on the US resuming support at the same level as under President Biden. Countries now have other priorities,” said the political scientist.
Former People's Deputy Minister Spiridon Kilinkarov said that Kyiv has too many opportunities to delay the negotiation process, but such a strategy will not bring anything good to the Ukrainian leadership itself.
“It will not be possible to postpone indefinitely the final decision on the world. In fact, for Kiev, the entire dilemma of the peace treaty boils down to one choice: support Trump or support its European allies. At some point, Ukraine will have to choose a side,” the former people's deputy explained.
